Hickey and Analytics, what does he know?

NFL GMs over rate the value of high round draft picks.  Take a look at the NFL trade value chart.  The 5th  pick in the draft is worth almost the entire 5th and 6th rounds.  Does that make sense?    That is 60 picks versus one pick.  The 5th pick is worth 1700 points picks 129-188 are worth 1698.6.  Take a look at the last 10 years.  By year sometimes you might have preferred the 5th pick and sometimes you might have preferred picks 129-188.  I think mostly you would have preferred 129-188.

2011 2010 2009 2008 2007
Patrick Peterson Eric Berry Marck Sanchez Glenn Dorsey Levi Brown
Richard Sherman Greg Hardy Chris Clemons Carl Nicks Kevin Boss
Charles Clay Reshad Jones Brandon Carr Brent Celek
Buster Skrine Riley Cooper John Sullivan Nick Folk
Deanrius Moore Kam Chancellor Antonio Johnson
2006 2005 2004 2003 2002
AJ Hawk Cadillac Williams Sean Taylor Terence Newman Quentin Jammer
Kyle Williams Michael Boley Michael Turner Robert Mathis Aaron Kampman
Rob Ninkovich Bo Scaiffie Antonio Smith David Diehl Scott Fukita
Dawan Landry Chris Kemoeatu Corey Williams Aubrayo Franklin Rocky Bernard
Erik Coleman Dan Koppen Kenyon Coleman

But cumulatively the difference is large.

5th Pick 129 – 188 129 – 188 129 – 188 129 – 188
Patrick Peterson Richard Sherman Aaron Kampman Nick Folk David Diehl
Quentin Jammer Greg Hardy Reshad Jones Antonio Johnson Aubrayo Franklin
Terence Newman Robert Mathis Riley Cooper Dawan Landry Tony Pashos
Eric Berry Carl Nicks Chris Clemons Michael Boley Scott Fukita
Sean Taylor Kyle Williams Brandon Carr Bo Scaiffie Rocky Bernard
AJ Hawk Rob Ninkovich John Sullivan Antonio Smith Kenyon Coleman
Glenn Dorsey Michael Turner Buster Skrine Corey Williams
Levi Brown Dan Koppen Deanrius Moore Erik Coleman
Marck Sanchez Charles Clay Kevin Boss Gibril Wilson
Cadillac Williams Kam Chancellor Brent Celek Jake Scott

 The top guys from the 5th and 6th round match up well with what you would get with the 5th pick.  I say better but on top of that you get a whole team of players that started 3 or more years in the NFL of varying quality.  Some aren’t so hot, but some made one or more pro-bowls, mostly average NFL starters.  The real value of NFL draft positions is something more like this.

Trade down.  Trade this year’s picks for more pick’s next year.  Stock pile picks by taking advantage of the misperceived value of higher round picks.  Take advantage of GM’s trying to make a splash and hang one more year.  Build a long term winner.


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