Posts Tagged 'Win Score Formula'

Why does Zach Lowe think so little of Wins Produced?

Why does Zach Lowe think so little of Wins Produced?

“I take everything into account: I watch a gazillion games, scour film, talk to talent evaluators all over the league, and consider every publicly available statistic I can find.”

 Via NBA Geek DeAndre Jordan is the NBA’s top center.  Zach selects DeMarcus Cousins, who is having a decent year, and does not even mention DeAndre Jordan .  Why?   Aside from scoring let’s compare the two players numbers using this Win Score formula.   A steal is worth a point, an ORB is +1, a DRB is worth .5,  an assist is worth .5, a block is worth .5, a PF is worth -.5, and TO is worth -1.   Jordan is a slightly better rebounder he averages a full ORB and .3 DRB more than Cousins per 48.   Cousins averages 3.1 more assists per game but he also averages 3.2 more TOs.   Jordan averages 1.7 more blocks.  Cousins averages 1.3 more steals and 1.3 more PFs.  Tally it all up  1 ORB + .3DRB(.5) for Jordan = 1.15 points for Jordan.   3.1(.5) Assists for Cousins – 3.2 TOs.  Jordan is up 2.8 points + 1.7(.5) blocks and Jordan is up 3.65 points – 1.3 Cousins steals is 2.35 + 1.3(.5) fewer PF per game for Jordan means Jordan is worth about 3 extra points per 48 minutes.

But Cousins averages 34.3 points per 48 and Jordan only 13.06 and Cousins efficiency is above league average.  Counting 2 FT as one shot attempt Cousins averages 1.08 points per shot attempt which is above the league average of 1.06 points per shot attempt.  So there we have it Cousins an All Star and Jordan doesn’t even rate a mention.  Right?  Wait.  Jordan averages 1.16 points per shot attempt which is excellent.  It is true he only takes 11.25 shot attempts per game.   Which is better?

Let’s take a look.  The average NBA team takes 91.8 shot attempts per game and averages 97.27 points for 1.06 points per shot attempt.  Cousins takes 31.75 shot attempts per 48 and scores 1.08 points per shot attempt.  Let’s replace 31.75 of an averages team’s shots with Cousins output and keep the rest the same.  We get (31.75*1.08 = 34.3) + 60.05*1.06 = 98 points per game.  So Cousins’ offense improves our average NBA team’s points by .75.  Let’s do the Same for Jordan.  We get (11.25*1.16 = 13.06) + 80.05*1.06 = 98.4 points per game.  So Jordan’s offense improves our average NBA team’s points by 1.13.   Wow shooting efficiency really matters!

You cannot claim that Jordan’s excellent FG% numbers are just a product of Chris Paul because before the arrival of Chris Paul he had a better FG%.    Jordan also had a higher Offensive Rating than his team’s before and after the arrival of Chris Paul.  Via NBA.com.

So arguments about the dead weight effect of Jordan on Offense do not seem to make much sense.

I showed how Jordan is worth 3.4 extra points per 48.  The real number Via NBA Geek is 4.9.  The bottom line is based on numbers instead of aesthetics is that Jordan is the better player.